Wealth Accumulated

By D J Thomas, a large-cap stock market value investor and financial writer

apple

Warren Buffett is holding a boatload of cash

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Warren Buffett

Berkshire Hathaway’s cash increased to $128.65 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022 up from nearly $109 billion in the third quarter according to the latest Berkshire Hathaway annual letter. Even more astonishing is Apple represents nearly 40% of Berkshire’s portfolio, a stock that he purchased more of in Q4. My favourite quote from the annual letter: “When you are told that all (stock) repurchases are harmful to shareholders or to the country, or particularly beneficial to CEOs, you are listening to either an economic illiterate or a silver-tongued demagogue (characters that are not mutually exclusive)”. Read the full letter here.

US inflation in January rises higher than expected

The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – the core personal consumption expenditures price index increased 4.7% from a year ago adding to the expectation that the Fed will have to keep rates higher for longer. Inflation as we all know and love it including food and energy rose 5.4%.

HSBC profits from higher interest rates

Quarterly pretax earnings came in at $5.2 billion versus $2.7b billion for the same period last year. Full-year profits at $17.5 billion were lower than last year’s $18.9 billion due to the costs of selling a French bank. Rising credit losses were blamed on higher inflation.

Walmart and Home Depot: the consumer is under pressure

Walmart CFO John David Rainey: “The consumer is still very pressured… and if you look at economic indicators, balance sheets are running thinner and savings rates are declining relative to previous periods. And so that’s why we take a pretty cautious outlook on the rest of the year.”. Home Depot Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail: “We’ve seen an increasing degree of price sensitivity as the year’s gone on, which is actually sort of what we predicted in the face of persistent inflation.”

Tesco, ASDA and Morrisons don’t want you to eat real food

The rising costs of production such as energy have curtailed the supply of fresh fruit and vegetables to UK supermarket shelves. As a result, they’ve limited what consumers can purchase. ASDA has introduced ‘MAX3’ – “We have introduced a temporary limit of three of each product on a very small number of fruit and vegetable lines, so customers can pick up the products they are looking for.”

Intel cuts dividend by 65%

There is now open talk of NVIDIA replacing Intel in the DOW after its stock plunged from $68 a share in April 2021 to $25 this week. On top of cost cuts, CEO Pat Gelsinger intends to grow the dividend over time after a drastic cut – “The board and I continue to view the dividend as a critical component to the overall attractiveness of Intel”. A declining PC market and demand for its own products – its customers simply have too many chips and need to work through their own inventories. “While we know this dynamic will reverse, predicting when is difficult”. 

Fed minutes: the inflation fight continues

There are signs that inflation is falling, but labor markets “remained very tight, contributing to continuing upward pressures on wages and prices“. Members believe that ongoing rate hikes will be necessary because more evidence of progress across a broader range of prices would is required. A few members of the FOMC members wanted a half-point or 50 basis-point rather than the recently announced quarter-point rise a few weeks ago.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard wants rates north of 5%

“We have a good shot at beating inflation in 2023”. Bullard wants rates to go higher now so that in his opinion, the FOMC has a better chance of beating inflation in 2023. “Our risk now is inflation doesn’t come down and reaccelerates, and then what do you do? We are going to have to react, and if inflation doesn’t start to come down, you know, you risk this replay of the 1970s … and you don’t want to get into that. Let’s be sharp now, let’s get inflation under control in 2023.”

How earnings from oil smash records whilst tech disappoints

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ExxonMobil gushes $56 billion in profits

It’s a record yearly profit for the company which previously stood at $45.2 billion in 2008. That was when oil hit $142 a barrel. The EU pre-empted Exxon’s swag with a $1.3 billion windfall tax in the fourth quarter. Shares finished the week at £112 also an all-time high for the firm. As noted two weeks ago, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine will prompt eye-watering earnings from the energy sector. Exxon’s Chief Financial Officer Kathryn Mikells said ‘strong markets, strong throughput, strong production, and really good cost control’ helped the firm to its record earnings.

Google earnings drop in Q4

Alphabet’s earnings came in at $1.05 per share, revenue came in at $76.05 billion continuing a downtrend trend in quarterly revenue growth since Q2 of 2021. In November 2021, shares reached an all-time high of $148 and have since fallen 29% to $105. The company also warned of a $2.3 billion charge it will sustain in Q1 of 2023 related to the 12,000 employees it fired in January. Further charges related to real estate – specifically its reduced office space, will start at $500 million in Q1 and further real-state charges are likely moving forward. Headcount growth cost it an extra 10% in operating expenses but CEO Sundar Pichai reiterated its focus on AI. With Google’s current legal proceedings in the US, there’s a lot for the executive team to be working on and shareholders to be mindful of.

Apple earnings growth slides

CEO Tim Cook blamed the macroeconomic environment and the lockdowns in China for not producing enough iPhones and iPads to sell for the latest quarterly earnings decline. Apple posted EPS of $1.88, down 10.9% YOY, revenue was down 5.49% YOY. Apple’s quarterly earnings have been declining in growth since the beginning of 2021, albeit from lofty heights (54.1% in Q1). The firm said that production levels of the iPad and iPhone are back to ‘acceptable levels’. The number of Apple active devices increased from 1.8 billion to 2 billion, including first-time buyers of the Apple Watch. Cook mentioned costs are being cut and hiring has slowed but did not see a need to slash headcount like others in the tech space. Despite the negative decline in earnings growth, Apple has faired much better than its tech peers due to prudent management of its hiring process, innovative product expansion (Apple Pay, Card, Music), and bringing new customers on board its product range despite the macro headwinds of the last few years: resilience.

Amazon issues guidance for Q1

Amazon expects YOY growth of revenue of between 4% – 8%, and online store sales declined 2% YOY. Consumers are slowly switching from e-commerce to high-street shopping since the end of the pandemic. CEO Andy Jassy, on top of announcing an 18,000 headcount cull last month, has frozen hiring, halted warehouse build, and is ‘… working really hard to streamline our costs and trying to do so at the same time that we don’t give up on the long-term strategic investments that we believe can meaningfully change broad customer experiences and change Amazon over the long term’. Amazon Web Services – its cloud business – declined in growth for the fourth quarter from 27.5% in the third, to 20%. Amazon earned 3 cents per share and operating income declined YOY due to $2.7 billion of charges, some of which related to severance payments. Shares are trading at $103, down from $183 in November 2021.

Meta shares explode 23% after results

Meta shares rocketed 23% in after-hours trading when the firm announced a $40 billion stock buyback, and beating revenue expectations for the fourth quarter. CEO Mark Zuckerberg said Meta’s “management theme for 2023 is the year of efficiency and we’re focused on becoming a stronger and more nimble organization.” Meta announced 11,000 layoffs last November. There’s also less expenditure expected in the future due to a switch to more cost-effective data centres. The Reality Labs unit responsible for the development of the Metaverse is expected to increase operating losses in 2023 ‘significantly’. Shares are currently trading at $186, down from $378 in September 2021. Without the share buyback, the value of Meta is in decline due to weak advertising demand and Tik Tok dominating ad revenue growth. Meta’s ad revenue declined 4% in the quarter and continues to be ‘impacted by the uncertain and volatile macroeconomic landscape’ according to Meta CFO Susan Li. Ad revenue represented 97% of Meta’s total revenue in the quarter.

Shell’s 115-year profit record

$39.9bn (£32.2bn) in 2022, the highest in its 115-year history. The price of Brent crude oil went to almost $128 a barrel after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine last year. It’s currently trading at $83. Shell said was due to pay $134m in a UK windfall tax for 2022 and more than $500m in 2023. Shell had paid $13bn in taxes globally in 2022 and only derives around 5% of its revenue from the UK.

US raises interest rates by 0.25%

The market expected it and The Fed delivered. A rise of 25 basis points from Jerome Powell and his team this week, the highest since October 2007. Inflation is still at its highest levels since the 1980s. Powell noted that inflation “has eased somewhat but remains elevated… inflation data received over the past three months show a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of increases… while recent developments are encouraging, we will need substantially more evidence to be confident that inflation is on a sustained downward path.”

UK interest rates highest for 14 years

The Bank of England raised interest rates by 0.5% to 4%. The market is expecting rates to peak at 4.5% in the summer before heading back down. The Bank has a 2% inflation target but prices are rising at 10.5%, a 40-year high. The market believes inflation reached its peak in the UK last October at 11.1%. Both the Bank of England and The Fed are in lockstep both with inflation and rate rises, but not on the upcoming recession – the IMF stated this week that the UK will be the only major economy to shrink in 2023, forecasted to be -0.6%.

Apple: the FAANG that hasn’t culled overhead. Yet.

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Macbook on a wooden table
Apple did not go on the same hiring spree as other FAANGS during the 2020 lockdowns

I remember laying down next to my allotment plot slash community garden during the summer of 2020. There was literally nothing else to do. I was happy with my employer, with my work. There was no reason for me to leave or seek alternative employment. That was not the case for millions of people who began applying for roles at big tech firms with the extra time they had on their hands to re-orientate their working lives.

Amazon ended up hiring 500,000 employees in 2020, and another 310,00 in 2021 to “meet the needs of our customers while ensuring the safety of our employees… [and] investing for customers and employees during these unprecedented times”. Microsoft hired to a less aggressive extent but the real ‘winner’ was Apple who kept the same hiring rates since 2016, notching the lowest percentage increase in headcount among the FAANGS.

This week, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said he will be “making changes that will result in the reduction of our overall workforce by 10,000 jobs through the end of FY23 Q3.” The company will sustain a $1.2 billion charge in its Q2 earnings next week “related to severance costs, changes to our hardware portfolio, and the cost of lease consolidation as we create higher density across our workspaces.” Gotta pay off all those employees somehow. Amazon’s Doug Herrington, the company’s worldwide stores chief, said in a memo Wednesday that they will cull 18,000 employees “so we can continue investing in the wide selection, low prices, and fast shipping that our customers love.

Finally, Google and Alphabet’s CEO Sundar Pichai said he took “full responsibility” for announcing 12,000 job cuts and that the company had rapidly expanded headcount in recent years “for a different economic reality than the one we face today.” The perverse nature of capitalism means that these layoffs will prove profitable for shareholders 1-3 years from now. Traders have already jumped into these stocks on the back of them being huge winners over recent years, but the fact is that as a collective and a large component of the S&P 500, they are still repairing the damage that bloat can do to a business. It’s worth keeping an eye on their earnings in 2023 for sure.

Inflation is falling in the UK. Except for food

“Baked beans are up over 50% in a year. Tinned tomatoes from Spain, also up 50%.” Philip de Ternant, a food wholesaler sounds exasperated on the news that inflation ‘fell’ from 10.7% in November to 10.5% for December. But it’s just not food that continues to see a tsunami of price rises whilst the rest of the inflation basket trickles downwards. Airfares, hotels, restaurants. Basically, if you want to sustain yourself whilst having any fun at all, your financial masters have made it impossible.

When’s a good time to FTSE?

Early in my dating life, I would take a girl to places that had tables. That was my sole choice for the date venue. Didn’t matter if it was a pub, cafe, or restaurant. Tables were where the action was in my mind. I could work my magic charming damsels and the table was like a wingman, allowing me to draw closer, squeeze a hand, and of course play footsie. I remember one particular barman of a local who was a family friend was so impressed with my dating skills that he gave me and my girl free drinks all night. That story is in no way connected to whether or not I think the FTSE 100 is trading at a discount to intrinsic value. Which it isn’t, especially as it’s trading near all-time highs. Now is not the time to FTSE.

The Christmas high street numbers ain’t pretty

US retail sales fell 1.1% in December according to fresh data from the Commerce Department. On top of that, wholesale prices measured by the producer prices index dropped 0.5% for December, more than expected 0.1% showing signs that the US economy is slowing down. The Dow ended the day down 600 points in response. The last time PPI dropped by this amount was in April 2020 raising fresh concerns about a recession.

In the UK, December sales fell by a record 5.8% compared with December 2021 as inflation, and in particular energy costs for households have soared over the past 12 months. It’s well known that where sales growth has been recorded, consumers spending more has been down to corporations raising prices due to inflation. This is the vicious cycle that the Fed and central banks around the world want to stop. Their only weapon in this fight is higher interest rates at the risk of destablising the economy.

Stock in focus: Ferrexpo Plc

As with any stock that’s main business is the production of a commodity, the share price can see swings wilder that an Andrew Tate house party. Chill out nothing’s been proven yet. This FTSE 250 producer and exporter of high-grade iron ore pellets to the global steel industry is based in central Ukraine, which explains some of the most recent price extremes. In the fourth quarter of 2022, Ferrexpo produced 0.4 million tonnes of iron ore pellets v 3.1 million tonnes in the same quarter of 2021.

This reduction is primarily due to the loss of electrical power for the majority of the quarter, which was partially restored in late December, in addition to existing constraints relating to Russia’s invasion. As of the date of this release, the Group continues to produce iron ore pellets using one pelletiser line (out of a total of four)… Full year pellet production of 6.1 million tonnes in 2022, down 46% year on year, reflecting operational and logistical constraints throughout 2022 due to the war in Ukraine (2021: 11.2 million tonnes produced).

Trading update, 11th January 2023

I’ve chosen Ferrexpo this week to highlight the effectiveness of the value investing approach I pursue and specifically the difference between a large-cap stock going through a temporary period of unpopularity such as ExxonMobil in 2020 when the price of oil went to -$37 a barrel and Ferrexpo. Both are commodity stocks. But both face or have faced, different problems. The prolonged nature of Russia’s invasion means that Ferrexpo’s problems are not temporary therefore Ferrexpo is not ‘investment grade’, even though it has a PE Ratio of less than 5, iron ore demand (prices) has been increasing, and its earnings have been growing steadily over the past few years. When the conflict in Ukraine looks likely to end is when to revisit Ferrexpo and its prospects for a brighter future.

How to use the price-to-earnings ratio to value large-cap stocks

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Man at a desk with phone in hand working on price-to-earnings

If you’re struggling with profitable investing in large-cap stocks, use the price-to-earnings ratio to value large caps to streamline how you actually look for stocks worth investing in.

I’m not forcing you to have a research process, but if you understand what an investment strategy can bring to your investing success, then stick around.

But a word of caution.

The price-to-earnings ratio (PER) is not the holy grail by any stretch, but it certainly makes the job of determining a sense of value for large caps much easier.

And that makes me feel good.

For context, I pursue a large-cap value investing strategy that involves determining what the real-world value of businesses are (intrinsic value) instead of the make-believe values assigned to them by the stock market and its army of commentators.

Pause.

Translation: massive companies like Apple, Microsoft, and ExxonMobil.

Yeah, I buy those.

But only when they’re on sale.

They call it purchasing shares in a business only when they are selling at a discount to its intrinsic value (margin of safety).

I call it a common sense approach to investing.

Wouldn’t you rather determine the actual, real-world value of a business instead of taking tips from an online forum or a talking head from the mainstream media?

The price-to-earnings ratio helps you to get an understanding of the intrinsic (real-world) value of a business AND whether it has a margin of safety (it’s on sale).

Perfect right?

Here’s the best way you can use the price-to-earnings ratio to value large-cap stocks.

How to calculate the price-to-earnings ratio

Before we get to the meat and potatoes, here’s what the PER actually is:

PER = share price, divided by the last reported earnings per share.

The price-to-earnings ratio is a way of appraising the value of a company based on its ability to turn a profit.

Earnings is simply another word for what accountants call net profit, commonly referred to as ‘the bottom line’.

Net profit is all the money a business has made minus the expenses of doing business like rent, taxes, payroll, and insurance.

Earnings per share is the amount of net profit a business has made divided by the number of shares a business has issued to the stock market.

Phew!

Stay with me here because the bottom is that there is no point in you buying stock in a business that does not know how to make a profit.

Yes, there is a slight learning curve to the PER, but if you want back yourself to learn a profitable investing strategy – and you really should back yourself – then you’re already one step closer to successful investing outcomes.

How to value Apple using the price-to-earnings ratio

Apple’s share price as of this post is $148.11 per share:

Macrotrends notes that Apple’s earnings per share over the previous trailing twelve months (earnings from the previous four quarters combined) is $6.11.

One year’s worth of a business’ earnings seems like a pretty good yardstick, right?

Apple’s share price (148.11) divided by its earnings per share (6.11) = a price-to-earnings ratio of (24.24).

Still with me?

Here’s a word of caution.

The pitfalls of the PER and how to deal with them

Many investors despise the price-to-earnings ratio (PER) as a measure of value.

They’ll say things like ‘managements manipulate earnings with accounting gimmicky to make earnings look better than they actually are’.

And they are absolutely correct.

It IS the case that accountants can and do manipulate earnings to make their business look as though it makes more money than it actually does in real life.

Everyone’s a hustler these days.

Also, some businesses are cyclical; their earnings may be extremely low or negative in one year.

In other years earnings may be extremely high.

Cyclical businesses sell ‘non-essential’ goods and services such as Walt Disney (DIS).

Although in my household, a Disney subscription has been essential since 2020.

Here’s an earnings breakdown for Walt Disney from Macrotrends that shows how earnings per share (EPS) can be ‘cyclical’:

10 years of Walt Disney’s annual earnings

Earnings consistency (or lack of) like this makes it difficult to value a company based purely on its earnings from one year to the next.

You’re much better off getting hold of a chart of the historical PER. It will help you to visualise past earnings value and compare it to where a stock is trading today (see below).

The Macrotrends website has historical for Apple as it does for hundreds of stocks.

Its screener is pretty awesome as well.

REVELATION: I hardly ever purchase a large-cap stock more than 20 times earnings.

The higher the price you pay for a stock based on its earnings, the higher the likelihood the stock will collapse in price after you’ve purchased it.

It’s the (value investing) law.

Combining the use of charts with the price-to-earnings ratio

A PER chart will show you where a stock has traded in the past based on its earnings so you can get a sense of where ‘value zones’ are.

Here’s Apple’s PE ratio chart from Finance Charts:

From 4th November 2008 to 25th November 2022

Working from right to left you can easily determine where the PE ratio is (24).

Then as you scan toward the left, you should begin to see that significant troughs at just above 10 times earnings have been the ‘deep value zone’ for Apple over the previous 14 years.

These deep value zones are where Apple stock sold at its cheapest.

Where they had the widest margin of safety between low price to earnings versus its real-world value.

More generally, you can easily determine that a PE ratio significantly below 20 for Apple has been a great place to buy its stock.

So as of the date of this post, Apple stock is too expensive to purchase based on a value investing perspective.

Implementing a value investing strategy with the PER

Just because a share price is too expensive for you to buy at today’s price, doesn’t mean it won’t be at some point in the future.

And this is the very heart of what is means to be a successful value investor: patience.

You can have all the discounted cash flow models and 13F filing reports you want, but without the patience to see a value-based strategy through, it simply will not work out to be a profitable strategy.

You’ll need:

  • patience to wait for the right price
  • patience to do your due diligence on each stock before the purchase
  • patience for the share price to rise in value when bought at a margin of safety, and
  • patience with yourself when, even after conducting extensive research on a business, its share price declines

That’s a lot of patience.

Free-to-use websites like Finviz are a great place to start because they have screeners that quickly list the stocks you want.

the Wealth Accumulated newsletter does the work for you by including updates on large-cap stocks.

Warren Buffett famously said:

If you aren’t thinking about owning a stock for 10 years, don’t even think about owning it for 10 minutes.

Warren Buffett

THAT’S HOW LONG-TERM THE VALUE APPROACH IS.

Thanks for making it to the end.

If you’d like to master the art of large-cap value investing to drive investing results, sign up for the free newsletter and get notified of when the next online course opens.

Like you’ve always known, the US is in a recession

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Like you've always known, the US is in a recession

Summer is the best time to develop a garden.

The pleasantness of the weather makes semi-amateur horticulture feel like therapy.

It is therapy.

I’ve a flock of recycled disused water butts, sawn in half and hole-punctured underneath using my most trusted tool – a bright orange Black and Decker cordless drill.

Filled with peat-free compost and seeds of various types, the containers will look more like show homes for plants rather than the discarded shells they are now.

At least that’s what I’m aiming for.

Kale, carrots, onions, fennel, and lavender. But no flowers yet.

That’s next week’s happy gardening task.

Picture of a small kale plant in a container

The extremely warm summer has meant superhero speeds of growth assisted by daily watering; a lazy but joyful task that’s easy to do in this carbon-induced sunburn.

The seeds I’m worried about most are lavender. They are precious little savages, perpetually refusing to cooperate when it comes to germination.

No amount of due care and attention pleases them.

Like the recession deniers, with a little telling off, I’m hoping they come to their senses.

Stock market memo

We seem to have en­tered an eco­nomic down­turn that will have a broad im­pact on the digi­tal ad­ver­tis­ing busi­ness

Mark Zuckerberg

21% of the S&P 500 reported earnings this week and the results were mixed and a lot stronger than I’d expected.

Microsoft – lowest earnings growth in two years but with guidance for increased revenue – 12% – and income moving forward. Ukraine, China supply chain woes, and softer digital ad spend blamed for revenue declines.

Google – slowest revenue growth in two years yet still grew by 12% to $56 billion. Search grew 14% to $40 billion, net income was down 14%, slower down in hiring, and advertisers pulled ad spend.

Meta – first ever reported sales decrease down 1% to £28.8 billion, increase in users, decreased ad demand down by 14%, click-to message ads see double-digit growth

Apple – profits down 11% to $19.4 billion, revenue rose 1.87% to $83 billion, iPhone sales rose 2.8% to $40.67 billion

Amazon – slowing revenue (7.2% v 7.3% for the first quarter) and a $2 billion loss for the quarter, revenue driven by strength in cloud computing business, inflation continues to drive up costs

We are seeing some pockets of softness here and there… but in the aggregate, we expect revenue to accelerate in the September quarter as compared to the June year over year performance

Tim Cook

Let’s be honest. These companies are still printing money because they produce goods and services that are in demand across the globe, quite apart from the fact that they have built huge moats around their existing businesses.

In the aggregate, they have performed extremely well given the high inflationary/supply-chain chaos the global economy is in the midst of.

Along with energy, tech is doing well.

The only question mark is around Meta and Mark Zuckerberg’s ‘all-in’ stance on the metaverse, still in its infancy and feels a lot like a college dorm project on steroids.

Kinda like the beginnings of Facebook.

Is it, or is it not inflation

We got the news that inflation for June rose by 6.8%, up from 6.3% for the previous month, in particular, energy increased by 43.5% from last year and food by 11.2%.

For the overwhelming majority of Americans, it’s inflation.

Biden, Yellen, Powell, and the White House PR machine have a job to do which is to prevent panic in the markets so that the economy doesn’t go into complete freefall.

That’s their job.

But I don’t blame them for acting the way they do and saying the things they say.

As investors, we know not to take the word of anyone seriously when it comes to their interpretation of the economy and individual stocks.

Yep, that means my word as well.

From a value perspective, we assess risk by estimating value, assessing risk, and holding onto things for long periods.

So whether you jump on the ‘it’s not a recession because it’s not broad-based’ bandwagon or not is irrelevant.

  • Did you buy in at a margin of safety?
  • Does your written-out investment strategy have a section on how to deal with uncertainty?
  • Is it likely that stocks will be worth more than 10 years from now?

Just because it is or is not a recession doesn’t mean you need to make it the focus of how you position your portfolio.

What else happened this week

  • The S&P 500 finished July up 9.1%, the NASDAQ was up 12%.
  • Friday saw Exxon and Chevron banked record profits at $17.9 billion and $11.6 billion respectively.
  • Walmarts second-quarter net profit fell 40% which sent stocks tumbling on Tuesday.
  • Russia further reduced the flow of gas through its Nord Stream pipeline to Germany from 40% of capacity to just 20%, driving up energy costs and hampering Europe’s economic recovery.
  • German cities have already begun shutting off lights and enforcing cold showers in their publicly run buildings to save energy.

Thanks for reading the first blog from Wealth Accumulated.

See you next week.

D J Thomas