Weekly stock market memo
Why lower interest rate rises are less toxic for your portfolio
0.25 or 0.50? These are the numbers getting everyone’s knickers in a twist. The numerical obsession with interest rates is tied to the fact that stocks like low interest rates. The next FOMC meeting is in a few weeks’ time starting 31st January and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said last Friday “there appears to be little turbulence ahead, so I currently favor a 25-basis point increase at the FOMC’s next meeting.” And it’s not just Waller. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said in his view “hikes of 25 basis points will be appropriate going forward”. The expectation has been set.
Machine learns like lightening, very very frightening
Google and Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai is frightened of future internet users turning to AI rather than using its search engine. It’s clear why: Sridhar Ramaswamy from Google’s ad team between 2013 and 2018, said that ChatGPT could prevent ChatGPT users from clicking on links with ads. Ads that generated approximately $208 billion dollars (81% of 2021 revenue). The recent lawsuit filed against Google by a coalition of 8 US states and the Department of Justice accusing them of ‘destroying competition in the ad tech industry’, may prove to be an untimely distraction. The demo version of Google Search with AI chatbot that Google promised by the firm later this year can’t come soon enough for shareholders.
Google needs a lawyer
The US Department of Justice along with eight states is suing Google. But before we get into that, let’s remind ourselves about the staggering worldwide backlash against Google’s dominance: a $2.73 billion fine by the EC in 2017, a $4.3 billion fine by the EU in 2018, a $1.49 billion fine by the EC once again – all for antitrust issues. Historical fines for Google in the US have been nowhere near these figures. This time around, the lawsuit is seeking to divest its advertising businesses as a way of opening up competition in the ad space. Are we about to see the US admonish one of its own corporate children?
Microsoft’s layoffs cost it a packet
Microsoft earned $2.32 per share. The market was expecting $2.29. All good in the hood. Microsoft said it recorded a charge of $1.2 billion for the quarter, $800 million of which related to the job cuts. Oh, there’s also a slowdown in its cloud and business software divisions for 2023 according to the company. “During the pandemic, there was rapid acceleration. I think we’re going to go through a phase today where there is some amount of normalization in demand,” Chief Executive Officer Satya Nadella. Microsoft earnings are important because it’s seen as an example of the wider tech sector, which also happens to have a major influence on the tech-heavy S&P 500. Its slowdown in December coupled with an acknowledgment of a general slowdown in PC sales forecasted for 2023 looks as though the recession is starting to influence forward earnings “In our commercial business we expect business trends that we saw at the end of December to continue” – Amy Hood, Cheif Financial Officer, Microsoft.
UK government likes debt
From £16.7 billion in December 2021, to £27.4 billion in December 2022, the UK government hits record borrowing. Way above expectations of £17.8 billion. Inflation, household energy bills assistance, student loans, and April’s national insurance policy reversal is to blame. A significant proportion of student loans will never be repaid and the government is forced to recognise this under new accounting rules adding to the indebtedness.
Recession in the UK
Two data points: 1) the S&P global CIPS UK flash composite purchasing managers’ index saw the ‘sharpest drop in business activity for two years’. January data highlighted a sustained downturn in UK private sector business activity. The overall rate of decline accelerated to its fastest for two years. “Weaker than expected PMI numbers in January underscore the risk of the UK slipping into recession”, Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. 2) Anna Leach, CBI Deputy Chief Economist, said: there are signs that demand is easing too, with order books weakening sharply, spare capacity in the manufacturing sector rising and the share of firms citing the strength of sales or orders as a potential constraint on output rising to its highest in almost two years.” If the patient is the UK economy, it’s like two doctors coming to more or less the same conclusion.
Boeing’s flying low
A $663 million loss for the fourth quarter and a $5 billion loss for the full year with a loss per share of £1.75 v expected earnings per share of 26 cents. It’s the sixth quarterly loss in a row. “While we have made meaningful progress, challenges remain and we have more work ahead to drive stability in our operations and within the supply chain,” Chief Executive Officer Dave Calhoun. Boeing is betting on a full re-opening in China and the easing of supply-chain issues that slowed the production of aircraft, especially jet engines. As an old-school value investor, I can’t help thinking back to the massive losses Warren Buffett suffered when he went full ham on airline stocks only to sustain huge losses. No thanks.
Tesla’s earnings turn south
You’ll see the headlines: record revenue at Tesla. What you won’t see, at least not as clearly, are earnings of $1.19 per share v $2.52 in the same quarter last year. Or that gross margins are the lowest in five years and operating cash flow is down 29% from last year. Tesla has already begun well-publicised price cuts on its vehicles which helped ramp up orders. Musk is upbeat about Tesla and thinks he can make up to 2 million vehicles this year which he says will all be sold if they can make them fast enough. ‘Twitter is actually an incredibly powerful tool for driving demand for Tesla’ Musk responded when asked if his political rants hurt the firm. He even had the gall to encourage other automakers to make use of Twitter for marketing their own brands. Elon is a well-received businessman here at Wealth Accumulated.
US Fourth quarter GDP down
A weakening housing market and a slowdown in corporate spending reduced fourth quarter GDP to 2.9% from 3.2% in the third quarter. Consumer spending (68% of GDP) increased 2.1%, fuelled largely by consumer debt, even as retail sales declined in December by 1.1%. Are consumers maxed out? Most commentators believe a recession is coming, albeit a mild one despite these numbers.
Diageo
Earnings per share shot up 20% for the firm this week to 100.9p at the half-year stage. The company owns the most enviable portfolio of drinks brands in the world. Baileys, Johnnie Walker, Guinness, Smirnoff, and a suite of Scotch Whiskeys to name a few. Price rises for its products and an increase in consumers drinking its premium brands helped to boost revenue. It, like a lot of the large caps that sell to China, is betting on increased revenue in 2023 when China re-opens.
Intel
Just 10 cents per share and a $664 million net loss in the fourth quarter of 2022. Intel is predicting a net loss of $15 cents per share in the first quarter of 2023. Intel elected not to give full-year guidance for 2023 but did indicate $11 billion in sales in the March quarter, a 40% year-over-year decline. Their customers have a deluge of chips already and need to work through their supply before buying Intel chips again, at least that’s what analysts are saying.
Chevron pumps profits
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted what will no doubt be eye-watering earnings from the energy sector. Chevron made a record $36.5 billion profit for 2022, more than double the previous year. The $75 billion share buyback program it announced has President Biden calling it a ‘slap in the face’ for Americans coping with the ravages of flooding in California.
Rolls Royce is a burning platform
The CEO of Rolls Royce, Tufan Erginbilgic gave his employees an analogy: when an oil platform in the North Sea is on fire, you need to jump into the volatile and freezing water to survive. That’s what he meant when referring to the firm as a ‘burning platform’. Covid was dismissed as no more than an excuse for what he called the firm’s chronic underperformance. He will likely announce a brutal restructuring following up his tough words with tough action.
Apple: the FAANG that hasn’t culled overhead. Yet.
I remember laying down next to my allotment plot slash community garden during the summer of 2020. There was literally nothing else to do. I was happy with my employer, with my work. There was no reason for me to leave or seek alternative employment. That was not the case for millions of people who began applying for roles at big tech firms with the extra time they had on their hands to re-orientate their working lives.
Amazon ended up hiring 500,000 employees in 2020, and another 310,00 in 2021 to “meet the needs of our customers while ensuring the safety of our employees… [and] investing for customers and employees during these unprecedented times”. Microsoft hired to a less aggressive extent but the real ‘winner’ was Apple who kept the same hiring rates since 2016, notching the lowest percentage increase in headcount among the FAANGS.
This week, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said he will be “making changes that will result in the reduction of our overall workforce by 10,000 jobs through the end of FY23 Q3.” The company will sustain a $1.2 billion charge in its Q2 earnings next week “related to severance costs, changes to our hardware portfolio, and the cost of lease consolidation as we create higher density across our workspaces.” Gotta pay off all those employees somehow. Amazon’s Doug Herrington, the company’s worldwide stores chief, said in a memo Wednesday that they will cull 18,000 employees “so we can continue investing in the wide selection, low prices, and fast shipping that our customers love.
Finally, Google and Alphabet’s CEO Sundar Pichai said he took “full responsibility” for announcing 12,000 job cuts and that the company had rapidly expanded headcount in recent years “for a different economic reality than the one we face today.” The perverse nature of capitalism means that these layoffs will prove profitable for shareholders 1-3 years from now. Traders have already jumped into these stocks on the back of them being huge winners over recent years, but the fact is that as a collective and a large component of the S&P 500, they are still repairing the damage that bloat can do to a business. It’s worth keeping an eye on their earnings in 2023 for sure.
Inflation is falling in the UK. Except for food
“Baked beans are up over 50% in a year. Tinned tomatoes from Spain, also up 50%.” Philip de Ternant, a food wholesaler sounds exasperated on the news that inflation ‘fell’ from 10.7% in November to 10.5% for December. But it’s just not food that continues to see a tsunami of price rises whilst the rest of the inflation basket trickles downwards. Airfares, hotels, restaurants. Basically, if you want to sustain yourself whilst having any fun at all, your financial masters have made it impossible.
When’s a good time to FTSE?
Early in my dating life, I would take a girl to places that had tables. That was my sole choice for the date venue. Didn’t matter if it was a pub, cafe, or restaurant. Tables were where the action was in my mind. I could work my magic charming damsels and the table was like a wingman, allowing me to draw closer, squeeze a hand, and of course play footsie. I remember one particular barman of a local who was a family friend was so impressed with my dating skills that he gave me and my girl free drinks all night. That story is in no way connected to whether or not I think the FTSE 100 is trading at a discount to intrinsic value. Which it isn’t, especially as it’s trading near all-time highs. Now is not the time to FTSE.
The Christmas high street numbers ain’t pretty
US retail sales fell 1.1% in December according to fresh data from the Commerce Department. On top of that, wholesale prices measured by the producer prices index dropped 0.5% for December, more than expected 0.1% showing signs that the US economy is slowing down. The Dow ended the day down 600 points in response. The last time PPI dropped by this amount was in April 2020 raising fresh concerns about a recession.
In the UK, December sales fell by a record 5.8% compared with December 2021 as inflation, and in particular energy costs for households have soared over the past 12 months. It’s well known that where sales growth has been recorded, consumers spending more has been down to corporations raising prices due to inflation. This is the vicious cycle that the Fed and central banks around the world want to stop. Their only weapon in this fight is higher interest rates at the risk of destablising the economy.
Stock in focus: Ferrexpo Plc
As with any stock that’s main business is the production of a commodity, the share price can see swings wilder that an Andrew Tate house party. Chill out nothing’s been proven yet. This FTSE 250 producer and exporter of high-grade iron ore pellets to the global steel industry is based in central Ukraine, which explains some of the most recent price extremes. In the fourth quarter of 2022, Ferrexpo produced 0.4 million tonnes of iron ore pellets v 3.1 million tonnes in the same quarter of 2021.
This reduction is primarily due to the loss of electrical power for the majority of the quarter, which was partially restored in late December, in addition to existing constraints relating to Russia’s invasion. As of the date of this release, the Group continues to produce iron ore pellets using one pelletiser line (out of a total of four)… Full year pellet production of 6.1 million tonnes in 2022, down 46% year on year, reflecting operational and logistical constraints throughout 2022 due to the war in Ukraine (2021: 11.2 million tonnes produced).
Trading update, 11th January 2023
I’ve chosen Ferrexpo this week to highlight the effectiveness of the value investing approach I pursue and specifically the difference between a large-cap stock going through a temporary period of unpopularity such as ExxonMobil in 2020 when the price of oil went to -$37 a barrel and Ferrexpo. Both are commodity stocks. But both face or have faced, different problems. The prolonged nature of Russia’s invasion means that Ferrexpo’s problems are not temporary therefore Ferrexpo is not ‘investment grade’, even though it has a PE Ratio of less than 5, iron ore demand (prices) has been increasing, and its earnings have been growing steadily over the past few years. When the conflict in Ukraine looks likely to end is when to revisit Ferrexpo and its prospects for a brighter future.
Is it time to go all-in now that inflation is easing?
Traders: ‘I’m going all-in to the market now that CPI (inflation) is declining. But no. We’re still fearful.
Banks: ‘Nope. A recession is coming. A mild one. But a recession nonetheless. Plus we’ve raised our credit loss provision substantially… because… well… the economy is screwed for 2023′
The Fed’s inflation fight
People like Jim Quinn are shelling out upwards of $6 and $7 for a dozen eggs. Quinn has run daytime eatery The Hungry Monkey Café in Newport, Rhode Island, with his wife, Kate, since 2009. As a breakfast and lunch joint, it leans heavily on eggs for the majority of dishes on its menu — and especially for the 15-egg King Kong omelet novelty food challenge at the restaurant. The cost of food is still hard to swallow, but the latest Consumer Price Index shows that those price increases — by and large — are at least growing at slower rates.
We’ve seen a decline in some measures of inflation but we have a lot more work to do, so I expect the [Federal Open Market Committee] will continue raising interest rates to tighten monetary policy
Michelle Bowman, Federal Reserve Governor
Bowman continues: “I expect that once we achieve a sufficiently restrictive federal funds rate, it will need to remain at that level for some time in order to restore price stability, which will in turn help to create conditions that support a sustainably strong labor market”
The business of banking
Recent fourth quarter results from the large-cap banks:
- Goldman Sachs: earnings of $3.32 per share vs. $5.48 estimate
- JP Morgan: earnings of $3.57 per share vs. $3.07 estimate
- Citigroup: earnings of $1.10 a share vs. $1.14 estimate
- Bank of America: earnings of 85 cents per share vs. 77 estimate
- Morgan Stanley: earnings of $1.26 per share vs. $1.19
- Wells Fargo: Earnings: 67 cents a share vs 66 estimate
Credit losses and wage inflation are to blame for Goldman Sachs’ hit to earnings. Here’s a free business tip if you run a bank: do not offer excessive salaries to ‘recruit and maintain talent’, shareholders will not be happy. Citigroup have the lowest PE ratio from this group at 7.07 at the time of publication.
Once a long term loser, always a long term loser
We need to talk about long-term FTSE 100 losers. Just one actually. Ocado (LSE: OCDO).
And to do that we need to take a quick look at the numbers.
*Checks numbers*.
Oh dear.
Is it me or is the only positive aspect of the Ocado business the balance sheet? Speaking of which:
Following our recent successful financing, we now have a strong financial position and ample liquidity to fund the requirements of our existing and expected customer commitments into the mid-term. No additional Group financing will be needed as the business becomes cash flow positive
Tim Steiner, Chief Executive Officer of Ocado Group
Unfortunatly, Steiner uses cash flow v free cash flow because free cash flow has been non-existent at Ocado, oh, for its entire operating history except for 2018. Also cashflow has been positive in the past yet for most of its operating history, Ocado has posted losses.
Ocado isn’t even on my watchlist.